His causal analysis is interesting in that he gives Hillary minimal chance of beating McCain if Obama were to bow out. Hell, I at least give her a fifty-fifty shot.
I don't know if Obama could sustain the blowback from his supporters if this fantasy were to ever happen, but I find this entry interestingly specious.
8 comments:
I have heard crazier half bad ideas....Like the time Sweeny and Tarpie bought a old junker used car to drive out to St. Chuck.
My observations...1) Obama has almost as many skeltons in the closet as Clinton....Although Clinton has more "skeltons" - It is just that a lot of her's are already outed. Obama will have more to come out. 2) I think the undercover brother would definitley regain his holier than thou status if he dropped out, 3) He has a 50-50 chance of beating McCain just as Clinton, 4)One thing that the author overlooked is that in 2012, McCain will be dead and his VP will be running against a Dem.
Regardless of the Dem. - The repub's most likely will take the title anyway. Who knows......No one may win b/c everyone will not be able to afford to drive to their local voting station.
Kenson
I would like to say it doesn't matter who is running against the Republican candidate, but the Democrats have a history of screwing up elections. Al Gore couldn't even win his home state as the VP of a relatively successful President.
You would think that 4,000 dead soldiers, $3.50 gasoline, and $4.00 gallons of milk would be a slam dunk against the Republicans, but it scares me to think that is not the case.
If debates mean anything (which who knows how influential they are nowadays), either Obama or Clinton would probably handily beat McCain in the debates once the Democratic primary mercifully comes to a close.
However, in '04, most observers--Democratic or GOP--claimed that Kerry beat Generalissimo Dubya in the debates, and we know how that election turned out.
Debates are set up to cater to the rationality of humans, and humans are not rational. We do an outstanding job of rationalizing (one more beer is fine; sure, she's kinda cute; I can trust him; I'll do that tomorrow when I have time), but the majority of people are moved by tribal rhetoric (I'm a "conservative," "The Democratic party is the party of the 'common' people") and their passions.
Six months ago, I thought there was little chance that a Republican wins the presidency, but now I'm not so optimistic.
If anything, the Clintons have successfully pulled Obama down into their muck.
In our country, an SNL skit has more of an impact on voters than the endorsement of Bill Richardson.
That's some sad shit.
"You would think that 4,000 dead soldiers, $3.50 gasoline, and $4.00 gallons of milk would be a slam dunk against the Republicans, but it scares me to think that is not the case."
While every death is a tragedy, 4000 deaths in 5 years is a remarkably low casualty rate in military history. Gasoline is expensive in part because of the refusal to allow new refineries and power generation plants. I bought milk at Sam's this weekend for $2.97 a gallon.
I am not disputing that this cycle should be a slam dunk for the Democrats and I am not saying that everything is going swimmingly in Iraq, but I am saying that it isn't as bad as you are implying Foz.
I still can't believe that the next president will be one of Obama, Clinton, or McCain. I can't believe we don't have better candidates out there.
"Debates are set up to cater to the rationality of humans..."
The "debates" that are set up now are merely simultaneous press conferences. I personally gain no knowledge of the candidates during presidential debates. I look at their records at what they have actually done in their previous elected office(s) and make my conclusions from that. I will hold my nose and vote for McCain this November, but I'm not happy about it.
Kenson-
You could at least spell my name and Tarpey's name correctly. The extra car for the commute theory was good in theory, unfortunately we purchased a car that drove(accelerate) itself. I think it only made it to St. Charles once.
Obama is going to get the nomination, I think he has handled the Rev. wright situation well. One Obama is able to focus on McCain rather than Hilary he will do fine.
I am amazed Travolta thinks the death count of soldiers is "remarkably low," explain that to the parents of each soldier that has died and then explain why we there in the first place and why we are still there today.
Oh yeah glad you were able to get a good deal on the milk at Sams/Wal-Mart.
In this war, the death rate is certainly lower than, say, the Vietnam War. That makes a hell of a lot of sense since we're now able to save more wounded than we were able to back then.
But the number of wounded for the Iraq War is roughly seven times the rate of the Vietnam War, which means many veterans will have lifetimes of mental and physical problems. The VA obviously needs better funding.
Regardless, 4,000 dead soldiers is too high of a human price to pay for a war premised on the faulty assumptions or distortions or lies that Iraq had WMDs and Saddam was linked to Al Qaeda.
My food for thought after perusing the comments:
1) Sorry Tarpey
2) Dave good to c u r alive - Hope all is well.
3) As far as the $2.97 milk...Way to contribute to low wages, corporate bullying, foreign outsourcing, and child / adult labor abuses. That slam is on me as well - I am at times guilty of it. I have gotten much better, and will keep trying to support local grocers.
4) I liked Obama - Not so sure now. I agree he did handle the Write situation decently. But still you cannot discount the credo / mission of the Brothers From Down Under Church. A credo that Obama was well aware of. Ridiculous - If it were a white male in the same situation he would have been torn apart. Hell he'd working 55 hours a week at Wal-Mart making $10.00 an hour with sub-par benefits.
5) Clinton is pulling Obama into more muck, but he was already standing in his own pile that he and his wife established.
6) As sad as it is to say, as charismatic as Obama is I do not think that he will be able to beat McCain.
7) Debates, what have you been smoking? I have watched 70-80% of the debates and they all lack sustentative questions. Where in the hell did some of these people get their journalism degrees? Ridiculous!!!
8) VA funding - I agree, but where is it going to come from?
Kenson
Addition to previous rant....
1) Dave sorry I spealled :) your name wrong as well.
Kenson
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